Patch Democrats Surveyed: High On Jay Nixon's Chances, Concerned About Susan Montee
The latest "Blue Arch" survey of Missouri Democrats focuses on the party's statewide candidates.
With just more than 40 days left until the November election, Missouri Democrats are confident in Governor Jay Nixon's chances for re-election but by a wide margin are worried about former State Auditor Susan Montee as she tries to unseat Republican incumbent Peter Kinder from the Lieutenant Governor's office.
Those were the main findings of the most recent survey of Democrats as part of the Patch Blue Arch project, which asks current and former lawmakers, activists, voters and other party "influencers" in the weeks and months leading up to November's election.
The non-scientific survey was conducted September 17-21 and received 29 responses.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most confident will win in November," 69 percent said Jay Nixon, while State Treasurer Clint Zweifel was next with 13.8 percent, Montee was next at 10.3 percent. Attorney General Chris Koster was next at 6.9 percent. Jason Kander, running for Secretary of State, received no votes.
"He's got the money, name recognition and political independence to succeed, even in the traditionally republican counties, and no one knows who Spence is," said one respondent about Governor Nixon in referencing his GOP opponent Dave Spence.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most concerned about in November," 50 percent cited Montee, followed by 17.9 percent who mentioned Kander, Koster at 14.3 percent, Nixon at 10.7 percent, and Zweifel at 7.1 percent.
When given an opportunity to explain their decisions, eight responses mentioned the Montee-Kinder race.
"The race between Montee and Kinder for Lt. Gov. is a race between 2 flawed candidates," one person wrote.
Most of the others said Kinder had better name recognition even though he has been plagued by controversy over areas where his official state spending crossed into his personal life, including thousands of dollars in St. Louis-area hotel bills.
Noting that Montee lost her last statewide race as an incumbent, one person surveyed said, "I suspect if Democrats would have anticipated the intensity of the Republican primary for LG, they would have found a better candidate."
Patch also asked Democrats if they would be interested in having the 2016 Democratic National Convention in St. Louis. The Gateway City was a runner-up to Charlotte in 2012, and officials here have indicated they will make a new attempt in the next Presidential campaign cycle.
More than 93 percent of those polled said they would want it here.
About The Red Arch/Blue Arch Surveys
Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions.
Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.
If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.
Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (St. Charles County Democratic Central Committee), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate), Kevin O'Malley (Fundraiser/Alternate Convention Delegate), Susan Meredith (State Rep. candidate), Susan Montee (Lt. Governor candidate), Bob Burns (State Rep. Candidate), Jim Karll (St. Charles County Democrats), Gloria Nickerson (Activist), Maureen Rogers-Bouxsein (Activist), Jo Ann Hughes (Activist)
Gary Brask
9:10 am on Monday, September 24, 2012
Montee received 45% OF THE VOTE IN AN 8 WAY PRIMARY. She is clearly the best candidate to defeat Kinder and become Missouri's next Lieutenant Governor.
Courtney Cole
9:32 am on Monday, September 24, 2012
The claim that both candidates in the Lt. Gov. race are flawed is ridiculous. Kinder has continually shown a lack of leadership, acted inappropriately while in his position, and used taxpayer money frivolously. As State Auditor, Montee worked hard, remained professional, and only lost the seat to a historic wave that was due to poor turnout of Democrats in 2010.
At the time in which Montee entered the race, she was the chosen candidate for the Party and remains so today, having won her Primary by such a large margin. She comes out on top having much more money than Kinder on hand and better respected as a person, candidate, and official.
Mary Stevenson
10:11 am on Monday, September 24, 2012
Losing a re-election bid does not make a candidate flawed. In Missouri, in 2010, it just means they were a Democrat. I would think the "democratic insider" quoted would understand that
The Missourian
3:15 pm on Monday, September 24, 2012
As a recent re-transplant to SC (also having grown up here), I think the only reason Dems don't win here is lack of organization. It feels like the local Democratic party just doesn't have its act together outside of STL. What I can tell you, is that having lived in a high tax, high benefit city and state (Twin Cities, MN), it would be worthwhile for Missourians to spend some time there to see just what your tax dollars can buy and to see what a blue state is like. In MN it was top tier parks, health services, twice as many Fortune 500s, highest quality of living in the country despite the winters, bikeable, thriving dynamic arts scene, very high incomes, social services that make it very easy for the poor and immigrants to access educational opportunities, and tonnnnns of startups and new patents. What I don't get is why state Dems don't go on the offensive about how they present a better, more future-oriented alternative for farmers. I realize there is a cultural divide in the state approximately between people of German/non-Baptist background and people with southern ancestry and Baptist upbringing to which you can attribute a lot of the state's political schizophrenia, but if the Dems could just hammer on the numerous ways they are better for farmers, they could win. I think the main problem is the perception that Dems are only there for North STL, which is a retarded POV at best.
The Missourian
3:37 pm on Monday, September 24, 2012
And just to clarify - it isn't that taxes directly buy these things. But there is a very strong "we're all in this together" culture up North that leads to high levels of civic investment in things that make the Cities awesome.
Mike Steel
4:06 pm on Monday, September 24, 2012
"So it's a completely unscientific poll? Why then is this even news? Anyone who doesn't think Montee can beat someone who spends his time at pant-less bars with strippers and spending tens of thousands in taxpayer dollars on hotel rooms and casinos needs to have their head examined."
Gregg Palermo
4:35 pm on Monday, September 24, 2012
Mike, this has been a valuable project over the last few months to see what people are thinking about candidates, campaigns and issues that will be on the line in November. Like any poll, scientific or not, this is just a snapshot in time. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.